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Transvaal vs Slee Juniors — Eerste Divisie 2019

Transvaal
Transvaal
FT
2 – 2
Slee Juniors
Slee Juniors
7/7/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 23Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Transvaal46%
×Draw21%
Slee Juniors33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Transvaal
2.08
Slee Juniors
1.76

Transvaal creates 18% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 12 away

creates per match

Transvaal
1.65
Slee Juniors
2.25

allows per match

Transvaal
1.27
Slee Juniors
2.50

finishing

Transvaal+0.00on par
Slee Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transvaal ↓

Slee Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Transvaal or draw
67%
Transvaal or Slee Juniors
79%
Draw or Slee Juniors
54%

Winning margin

Transvaal wins by 2+
26%
Slee Juniors wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Transvaal 1+ goals
87%
Transvaal 2+ goals
61%
Transvaal 3+ goals
34%
Slee Juniors 1+ goals
83%
Slee Juniors 2+ goals
52%
Slee Juniors 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Transvaal (draw refunded)
58%
Slee Juniors (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transvaal at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Slee Juniors away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transvaal attack 1.65 + Slee Juniors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Slee Juniors attack 2.25 + Transvaal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Transvaal scores more
46%
level
21%
Slee Juniors scores more
33%

Transvaal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Transvaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Transvaal 2–2 Slee Juniors

Transvaal and Slee Juniors drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on July 7, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.