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Transvaal vs Santos — Eerste Divisie 2019

Transvaal
Transvaal
FT
3 – 1
Santos
Santos
3/4/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 8Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Transvaal71%
×Draw16%
Santos13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Transvaal
2.70
Santos
1.10

Transvaal creates 145% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 27 away

creates per match

Transvaal
1.65
Santos
0.93

allows per match

Transvaal
1.27
Santos
3.74

finishing

Transvaal+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transvaal ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Transvaal or draw
87%
Transvaal or Santos
84%
Draw or Santos
29%

Winning margin

Transvaal wins by 2+
49%
Santos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Transvaal 1+ goals
93%
Transvaal 2+ goals
75%
Transvaal 3+ goals
50%
Santos 1+ goals
67%
Santos 2+ goals
30%
Santos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Transvaal (draw refunded)
84%
Santos (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transvaal at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Santos away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transvaal attack 1.65 + Santos defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 2.70

Santos attack 0.93 + Transvaal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Transvaal scores more
71%
level
16%
Santos scores more
13%

Transvaal at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Transvaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Transvaal 3–1 Santos

Transvaal beat Santos 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.