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Transvaal vs Flora Tallinn — Eerste Divisie 2019

Transvaal
Transvaal
FT
0 – 4
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
5/20/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 17Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Transvaal52%
×Draw22%
Flora Tallinn25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Transvaal
1.95
Flora Tallinn
1.30

Transvaal creates 50% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 12 away

creates per match

Transvaal
1.65
Flora Tallinn
1.33

allows per match

Transvaal
1.27
Flora Tallinn
2.25

finishing

Transvaal+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transvaal ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Transvaal or draw
75%
Transvaal or Flora Tallinn
78%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
48%

Winning margin

Transvaal wins by 2+
30%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Transvaal 1+ goals
86%
Transvaal 2+ goals
58%
Transvaal 3+ goals
31%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
73%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
37%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Transvaal (draw refunded)
67%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transvaal at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transvaal attack 1.65 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.95

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + Transvaal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Transvaal scores more
52%
level
22%
Flora Tallinn scores more
25%

Transvaal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Transvaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Transvaal vs Flora Tallinn

Flora Tallinn beat Transvaal 4-0 in Eerste Divisie on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.