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Transport vs Menzel Nour — Ligue 2 2020

Transport
Transport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Menzel Nour
Menzel Nour
2/5/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Transport53%
×Draw29%
Menzel Nour18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Transport
1.30
Menzel Nour
0.63

Transport creates 106% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Transport
0.60
Menzel Nour
0.45

allows per match

Transport
0.80
Menzel Nour
2.00

finishing

Transport+0.00on par
Menzel Nour+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transport ↓

Menzel Nour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Transport or draw
82%
Transport or Menzel Nour
71%
Draw or Menzel Nour
47%

Winning margin

Transport wins by 2+
25%
Menzel Nour wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Transport 1+ goals
73%
Transport 2+ goals
37%
Transport 3+ goals
14%
Menzel Nour 1+ goals
47%
Menzel Nour 2+ goals
13%
Menzel Nour 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Transport (draw refunded)
75%
Menzel Nour (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transport at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Menzel Nour away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transport attack 0.60 + Menzel Nour defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Menzel Nour attack 0.45 + Transport defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Transport scores more
53%
level
29%
Menzel Nour scores more
18%

Transport at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Transport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Transport 1 – 0 Menzel Nour

Transport beat Menzel Nour 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane in Tunis.