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Transport vs Jendouba Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Transport
Transport
FT
0 – 0
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
11/27/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Transport33%
×Draw34%
Jendouba Sport32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Transport
0.85
Jendouba Sport
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 59 away

creates per match

Transport
0.60
Jendouba Sport
0.86

allows per match

Transport
0.80
Jendouba Sport
1.10

finishing

Transport+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transport ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Transport or draw
68%
Transport or Jendouba Sport
66%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
67%

Winning margin

Transport wins by 2+
11%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Transport 1+ goals
57%
Transport 2+ goals
21%
Transport 3+ goals
5%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
56%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
20%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Transport (draw refunded)
51%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transport at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transport attack 0.60 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.85

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Transport defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Transport scores more
33%
level
34%
Jendouba Sport scores more
32%

Transport at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Transport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
A. Naghmouchi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Transport vs Jendouba Sport

Transport and Jendouba Sport drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane in Tunis.