Transport United 5–5 Thimphu City: Result & Stats

Transport United

FT

5 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Thimphu City

10/5/2024

Premier League · Round 9Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Transport United38%

×Draw20%

Thimphu City42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Transport UnitedExpected goals in this matchThimphu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

2.29

Transport United

2.17

Thimphu City

2.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

2.75

creates per match

3.06

1.53

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Transport United

2.75

Thimphu City

3.06

allows per match

Transport United

1.53

Thimphu City

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Transport United+0.00on par

Thimphu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transport United ↓

Thimphu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Transport United or draw

58%

Transport United or Thimphu City

80%

Draw or Thimphu City

62%

Winning margin

Transport United wins by 2+

21%

Thimphu City wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Transport United 1+ goals

89%

Transport United 2+ goals

64%

Transport United 3+ goals

36%

Thimphu City 1+ goals

90%

Thimphu City 2+ goals

66%

Thimphu City 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Transport United (draw refunded)

47%

Thimphu City (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transport United at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Thimphu City away — creates 3.06, concedes 1.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transport United attack 2.75 + Thimphu City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.17

Thimphu City attack 3.06 + Transport United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Transport United scores more

38%

level

20%

Thimphu City scores more

42%

Thimphu City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Thimphu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff