Transport United 3–0 Samtse: Result & Stats

Transport United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Samtse

4/19/2025

Premier League · Regular SeasonChanglimithang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Transport United74%

×Draw14%

Samtse13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Transport UnitedExpected goals in this matchSamtse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.38

1.41

Transport United

3.38

Samtse

1.41

Transport United creates 140% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

2.75

creates per match

1.28

1.53

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Transport United

2.75

Samtse

1.28

allows per match

Transport United

1.53

Samtse

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Transport United+0.00on par

Samtse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transport United ↓

Samtse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Transport United or draw

87%

Transport United or Samtse

86%

Draw or Samtse

26%

Winning margin

Transport United wins by 2+

55%

Samtse wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Transport United 1+ goals

96%

Transport United 2+ goals

84%

Transport United 3+ goals

64%

Samtse 1+ goals

76%

Samtse 2+ goals

41%

Samtse 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Transport United (draw refunded)

85%

Samtse (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transport United at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Samtse away — creates 1.28, concedes 4.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transport United attack 2.75 + Samtse defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.38

Samtse attack 1.28 + Transport United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Transport United scores more

74%

level

14%

Samtse scores more

13%

Transport United at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Transport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff