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Transport United vs Phuntsholing Heroes — Premier League 2023

Transport United
Transport United
FT
2 – 1
Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
6/8/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Transport United65%
×Draw18%
Phuntsholing Heroes17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Transport United
2.43
Phuntsholing Heroes
1.16

Transport United creates 109% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 9 away

creates per match

Transport United
2.75
Phuntsholing Heroes
0.78

allows per match

Transport United
1.53
Phuntsholing Heroes
2.11

finishing

Transport United+0.00on par
Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transport United ↓

Phuntsholing Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Transport United or draw
83%
Transport United or Phuntsholing Heroes
82%
Draw or Phuntsholing Heroes
35%

Winning margin

Transport United wins by 2+
43%
Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Transport United 1+ goals
91%
Transport United 2+ goals
69%
Transport United 3+ goals
43%
Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
69%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
32%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Transport United (draw refunded)
79%
Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transport United at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Phuntsholing Heroes away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transport United attack 2.75 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.43

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 0.78 + Transport United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Transport United scores more
65%
level
18%
Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
17%

Transport United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Transport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Transport United 2–1 Phuntsholing Heroes

Transport United beat Phuntsholing Heroes 2-1 in Premier League on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.