Transport United 3–0 Daga United: Result & Stats

Transport United

FT

3 – 0

Daga United

9/28/2024

Premier League · Round 8Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Transport United77%

×Draw12%

Daga United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Transport UnitedExpected goals in this matchDaga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.54

1.32

Transport United

3.54

Daga United

1.32

Transport United creates 168% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 9 away

2.75

creates per match

1.11

1.53

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Transport United

2.75

Daga United

1.11

allows per match

Transport United

1.53

Daga United

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Transport United+0.00on par

Daga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transport United ↓

Daga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Transport United or draw

89%

Transport United or Daga United

88%

Draw or Daga United

23%

Winning margin

Transport United wins by 2+

59%

Daga United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Transport United 1+ goals

97%

Transport United 2+ goals

86%

Transport United 3+ goals

66%

Daga United 1+ goals

73%

Daga United 2+ goals

38%

Daga United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Transport United (draw refunded)

88%

Daga United (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transport United at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Daga United away — creates 1.11, concedes 4.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transport United attack 2.75 + Daga United defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.54

Daga United attack 1.11 + Transport United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Transport United scores more

77%

level

12%

Daga United scores more

11%

Transport United at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Transport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff