Transport United 3–0 Bhutan U19: Result & Stats

Transport United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bhutan U19

10/11/2024

Premier League · Round 9Changlimithang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Transport United64%

×Draw18%

Bhutan U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Transport UnitedExpected goals in this matchBhutan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

1.40

Transport United

2.66

Bhutan U19

1.40

Transport United creates 90% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 23 away

2.75

creates per match

1.26

1.53

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Transport United

2.75

Bhutan U19

1.26

allows per match

Transport United

1.53

Bhutan U19

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Transport United+0.00on par

Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transport United ↓

Bhutan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Transport United or draw

81%

Transport United or Bhutan U19

82%

Draw or Bhutan U19

36%

Winning margin

Transport United wins by 2+

43%

Bhutan U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Transport United 1+ goals

93%

Transport United 2+ goals

74%

Transport United 3+ goals

49%

Bhutan U19 1+ goals

75%

Bhutan U19 2+ goals

41%

Bhutan U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Transport United (draw refunded)

77%

Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transport United at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Bhutan U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transport United attack 2.75 + Bhutan U19 defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.66

Bhutan U19 attack 1.26 + Transport United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Transport United scores more

64%

level

18%

Bhutan U19 scores more

19%

Transport United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Transport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff