TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai

TransINVEST Vilnius

Preview

15:45

Džiugas Telšiai

7/26/2026

A Lyga · Round 24FK TransINVEST stadium

Big match

41%

TransINVEST Vilnius

model favours

41%27%32%

Džiugas Telšiai score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

51%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius41%

×Draw27%

Džiugas Telšiai32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TransINVEST VilniusExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.16

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.36

Džiugas Telšiai

1.16

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 100 away

1.21

creates per match

1.00

1.32

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.21

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.32

Džiugas Telšiai

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw

68%

TransINVEST Vilnius or Džiugas Telšiai

73%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

59%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

19%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

74%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

39%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

16%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

69%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

32%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

56%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 1.21 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

41%

level

27%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

32%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

TransINVEST Vilnius score first in only 32% of matches
Both teams score in 74% of TransINVEST Vilnius’s matches
TransINVEST Vilnius raise their game against the top half — 38% wins vs the upper half, only 35% vs the lower
37% of Džiugas Telšiai’s goals come after the 75th minute
68% of TransINVEST Vilnius’s matches go over 2.5 goals
22% of TransINVEST Vilnius’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Vilnius

LLDW

Telšiai

WDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff