TransINVEST Vilnius 1–2 Džiugas Telšiai

TransINVEST Vilnius

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Džiugas Telšiai

8/27/2024

Cup · Quarter-finalsŠirvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius34%

×Draw22%

Džiugas Telšiai44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TransINVEST VilniusExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.85

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.61

Džiugas Telšiai

1.85

Džiugas Telšiai creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

2.22

creates per match

2.81

0.89

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.22

Džiugas Telšiai

2.81

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

0.89

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw

56%

TransINVEST Vilnius or Džiugas Telšiai

78%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

66%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

16%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

80%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

48%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

22%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

84%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

55%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

44%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.22 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Džiugas Telšiai attack 2.81 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

34%

level

22%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

44%

Džiugas Telšiai at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff