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TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026

TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
3/9/2024A LygaA Lyga · Round 2Širvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius41%
×Draw27%
Džiugas Telšiai32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TransINVEST Vilnius
1.36
Džiugas Telšiai
1.16

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 100 away

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius
1.21
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius
1.32
Džiugas Telšiai
1.52

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw
68%
TransINVEST Vilnius or Džiugas Telšiai
73%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
59%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
19%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
74%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
39%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
16%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
69%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
32%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
56%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 1.21 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
41%
level
27%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
32%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat TransINVEST Vilnius 1-0 in A Lyga on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Širvintų stadionas in Širvintos.