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TransferWise vs Tammeka — Cup 2026

TransferWise
TransferWise
FT
0 – 18
HT: 0 – 8
Tammeka
Tammekaadvanced
D. Laaneots 90', 81' (pen)
H. Käblik 85', 84', 75'
S. Kapper 85'
P. Veelma 62', 26', 9'
R. Kozlov 57' (OG)
K. Mätas 54' (pen), 49', 32', 1'
H. Välja 22'
C. Mägimets 19'
T. Teniste 13'
K. Anderson 4'
7/23/2022CupCup · Round of 64Nike Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TransferWise1%
×Draw1%
Tammeka98%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TransferWise
0.81
Tammeka
8.03

Tammeka creates 891% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

TransferWise
0.50
Tammeka
6.73

allows per match

TransferWise
9.33
Tammeka
1.13

finishing

TransferWise+0.00on par
Tammeka+0.00on par

Total goals

98%Over
  • Over98
  • Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransferWise ↓

Tammeka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–22%
0–34%
0–48%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–21%
1–33%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–31%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 32% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
100%0%2.5
98%2%3.5
92%8%4.5
80%20%

Double chance

TransferWise or draw
2%
TransferWise or Tammeka
99%
Draw or Tammeka
99%

Winning margin

TransferWise wins by 2+
0%
Tammeka wins by 2+
94%

Team goals

TransferWise 1+ goals
56%
TransferWise 2+ goals
19%
TransferWise 3+ goals
5%
Tammeka 1+ goals
100%
Tammeka 2+ goals
99%
Tammeka 3+ goals
96%

Draw no bet

TransferWise (draw refunded)
1%
Tammeka (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransferWise at home — creates 0.50, concedes 9.33 · 6 matches

Tammeka away — creates 6.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransferWise attack 0.50 + Tammeka defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

Tammeka attack 6.73 + TransferWise defence 9.33 → ÷2 → 8.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 98%?"

TransferWise scores more
1%
level
1%
Tammeka scores more
98%

Tammeka at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Tammeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
K. Mätas
4'
K. Anderson
9'
P. Veelma
13'
T. Teniste
19'
C. Mägimets
22'
H. Välja
26'
P. Veelma
32'
K. Mätas
49'
K. Mätas
54'
K. MätasPenalty
57'
R. KozlovOwn goal
62'
P. Veelma
75'
H. Käblik
81'
D. LaaneotsPenalty
84'
H. Käblik
85'
S. Kapper
85'
H. Käblik
90'
D. Laaneots

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TransferWise vs Tammeka

Tammeka beat TransferWise 18-0 in Cup on July 23, 2022.

Goals: K. Mätas (1', 32', 49', 54' pen), K. Anderson (4'), P. Veelma (9', 26', 62'), T. Teniste (13'), C. Mägimets (19'), H. Välja (22'), R. Kozlov (57' o.g.), H. Käblik (75', 84', 85'), D. Laaneots (81' pen, 90'), S. Kapper (85').

The match was played at Nike Arena in Tallinn.