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TransferWise vs Laagri — Cup 2026

TransferWise
TransferWise
FT
0 – 15
HT: 0 – 8
Laagri
Laagriadvanced
S. Kangur 78', 43', 1'
R. Reimaa 75'
K. Eerme 72', 53', 51', 48'
K. Kriis 62'
A. Sikk 45+1', 34'
K. Vali 42'
K. Einmann 40' (pen)
M. Kelement 37', 2'
8/7/2024CupCup · Round of 64Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TransferWise0%
×Draw1%
Laagri98%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TransferWise
0.92
Laagri
9.25

Laagri creates 905% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

TransferWise
0.50
Laagri
9.17

allows per match

TransferWise
9.33
Laagri
1.33

finishing

TransferWise+0.00on par
Laagri+0.00on par

Total goals

99%Over
  • Over99
  • Under1

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransferWise ↓

Laagri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–33%
0–46%
1
1–00%
1–10%
1–21%
1–33%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–31%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (6%) · grid covers 25% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
100%0%2.5
99%1%3.5
95%5%4.5
86%14%

Double chance

TransferWise or draw
2%
TransferWise or Laagri
99%
Draw or Laagri
100%

Winning margin

TransferWise wins by 2+
0%
Laagri wins by 2+
95%

Team goals

TransferWise 1+ goals
60%
TransferWise 2+ goals
23%
TransferWise 3+ goals
7%
Laagri 1+ goals
100%
Laagri 2+ goals
99%
Laagri 3+ goals
97%

Draw no bet

TransferWise (draw refunded)
0%
Laagri (draw refunded)
100%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransferWise at home — creates 0.50, concedes 9.33 · 6 matches

Laagri away — creates 9.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransferWise attack 0.50 + Laagri defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Laagri attack 9.17 + TransferWise defence 9.33 → ÷2 → 9.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 98%?"

TransferWise scores more
0%
level
1%
Laagri scores more
98%

Laagri at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
S. Kangur
2'
M. Kelement
34'
A. Sikk
37'
M. Kelement
40'
K. EinmannPenalty
42'
K. Vali
43'
S. Kangur
45+1'
A. Sikk
48'
K. Eerme
51'
K. Eerme
53'
K. Eerme
62'
K. Kriis
72'
K. Eerme
75'
R. Reimaa
78'
S. Kangur

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TransferWise vs Laagri

Laagri beat TransferWise 15-0 in Cup on August 7, 2024.

Goals: S. Kangur (1', 43', 78'), M. Kelement (2', 37'), A. Sikk (34', 45+1'), K. Einmann (40' pen), K. Vali (42'), K. Eerme (48', 51', 53', 72'), K. Kriis (62'), R. Reimaa (75').

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.