Trans Narva 2–0 Tallinna Kalev: Result & Stats

Trans Narva

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tallinna Kalev

8/23/2025

Meistriliiga · Round 25Narva Kreenholmi staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Trans Narva51%

×Draw23%

Tallinna Kalev26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trans NarvaExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.23

Trans Narva

1.82

Tallinna Kalev

1.23

Trans Narva creates 48% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 105 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

1.47

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Trans Narva

1.25

Tallinna Kalev

1.00

allows per match

Trans Narva

1.47

Tallinna Kalev

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trans Narva+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trans Narva ↓

Tallinna Kalev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Trans Narva or draw

74%

Trans Narva or Tallinna Kalev

77%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev

49%

Winning margin

Trans Narva wins by 2+

28%

Tallinna Kalev wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Trans Narva 1+ goals

84%

Trans Narva 2+ goals

54%

Trans Narva 3+ goals

27%

Tallinna Kalev 1+ goals

71%

Tallinna Kalev 2+ goals

35%

Tallinna Kalev 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Trans Narva (draw refunded)

66%

Tallinna Kalev (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trans Narva at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 131 matches

Tallinna Kalev away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trans Narva attack 1.25 + Tallinna Kalev defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Tallinna Kalev attack 1.00 + Trans Narva defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Trans Narva scores more

51%

level

23%

Tallinna Kalev scores more

26%

Trans Narva at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trans Narva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff