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Trans Narva vs Paide — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Paide
Paide
A. Gero 53'
K. Piht 35'
2/7/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Trans Narva51%
×Draw22%
Paide27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trans Narva
1.92
Paide
1.33

Trans Narva creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Trans Narva
1.33
Paide
0.50

allows per match

Trans Narva
2.17
Paide
2.50

finishing

Trans Narva+0.00on par
Paide+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trans Narva ↓

Paide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Trans Narva or draw
73%
Trans Narva or Paide
78%
Draw or Paide
49%

Winning margin

Trans Narva wins by 2+
29%
Paide wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trans Narva 1+ goals
85%
Trans Narva 2+ goals
57%
Trans Narva 3+ goals
30%
Paide 1+ goals
74%
Paide 2+ goals
38%
Paide 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Trans Narva (draw refunded)
66%
Paide (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trans Narva at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Paide away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trans Narva attack 1.33 + Paide defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Paide attack 0.50 + Trans Narva defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Trans Narva scores more
51%
level
22%
Paide scores more
27%

Trans Narva at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trans Narva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
K. Piht
53'
A. Gero
Trans
Paide
Roman Kozhukhovskyi
Manager: Roman Kozhukhovskyi
Jaanus Pruuli
Manager: Jaanus Pruuli

Friendlies Clubs: Trans Narva 1–1 Paide

Trans Narva and Paide drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 7, 2026.

Goals: K. Piht (35'), A. Gero (53').