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Trans Narva vs K-Järve JK Järve — Cup 2020

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
11/14/2020CupCup · 8th FinalsKalevi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Trans Narva84%
×Draw10%
K-Järve JK Järve5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trans Narva
3.22
K-Järve JK Järve
0.73

Trans Narva creates 341% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Trans Narva
3.94
K-Järve JK Järve
1.00

allows per match

Trans Narva
0.47
K-Järve JK Järve
2.50

finishing

Trans Narva+0.00on par
K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trans Narva ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Trans Narva or draw
95%
Trans Narva or K-Järve JK Järve
90%
Draw or K-Järve JK Järve
16%

Winning margin

Trans Narva wins by 2+
66%
K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Trans Narva 1+ goals
96%
Trans Narva 2+ goals
82%
Trans Narva 3+ goals
61%
K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
52%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
17%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Trans Narva (draw refunded)
94%
K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trans Narva at home — creates 3.94, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trans Narva attack 3.94 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.22

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.00 + Trans Narva defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Trans Narva scores more
84%
level
10%
K-Järve JK Järve scores more
5%

Trans Narva at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Trans Narva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trans Narva vs K-Järve JK Järve

Trans Narva beat K-Järve JK Järve 3-0 in Cup on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Kalevi Staadion in Narva.