Tranmere 0–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

C. Wyke 60'

1/29/2020

League One · Round 30Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tranmere30%

×Draw27%

Sunderland43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.37

Tranmere

1.11

Sunderland

1.37

Sunderland creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 86 away

1.13

creates per match

1.30

1.44

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Tranmere

1.13

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

Tranmere

1.44

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

57%

Tranmere or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

70%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

12%

Sunderland wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

67%

Tranmere 2+ goals

30%

Tranmere 3+ goals

10%

Sunderland 1+ goals

75%

Sunderland 2+ goals

40%

Sunderland 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

42%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.13 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Tranmere defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tranmere scores more

30%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

43%

Sunderland at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

L. O'Nien

Sunderland · M

7.2

Match Events

24'

George Dobson

48'

Joel Lynch

60'

C. Wyke↳ C. Maguire

67'

P. Mullin← L. Ridehalgh

74'

Emmanuel Monthe

77'

Kane Wilson

78'

S. Payne← M. Ferrier

81'

H. Gilmour← D. Perkins

84'

84'

88'

90'

90'

J. Scowen← C. Maguire

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereSunderland

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots5

2Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots5

2On Target1

2Off Target2

4Blocked2

4Inside Box4

4Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

307Total Passes322

189Accurate Passes194

62%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1