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Tranmere vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
19:45
Salford City
Salford City
12/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Prenton Park
Big match
39%
Salford City
model favours
36%26%39%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Tranmere36%
×Draw26%
Salford City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.34
Salford City
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.10
Salford City
1.55

allows per match

Tranmere
1.25
Salford City
1.58

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more
Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
61%
Tranmere or Salford City
74%
Draw or Salford City
64%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
16%
Salford City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
74%
Tranmere 2+ goals
39%
Tranmere 3+ goals
15%
Salford City 1+ goals
75%
Salford City 2+ goals
41%
Salford City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
48%
Salford City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.34

Salford City attack 1.55 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more
36%
level
26%
Salford City scores more
39%

Salford City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tranmere sit 21, Salford City 4 in the table
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Salford City
Attack-heavy
50%Possession52%
67%Pass accuracy67%
12.0Shots12.9
1.12xGBiggest gap1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereSalford City

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Tranmere
2
Draws
4
Salford City
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 40%
0–21–30–20–05–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
City
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tranmere vs Salford City — Match Preview

Tranmere face Salford City on December 1, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tranmere host Salford City at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.