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Salford City vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
9/6/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Salford City45%
×Draw26%
Tranmere29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.44
Tranmere
1.09

Salford City creates 32% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 164 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.40
Tranmere
1.04

allows per match

Salford City
1.15
Tranmere
1.49

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
71%
Salford City or Tranmere
74%
Draw or Tranmere
55%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
22%
Tranmere wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
76%
Salford City 2+ goals
42%
Salford City 3+ goals
18%
Tranmere 1+ goals
66%
Tranmere 2+ goals
30%
Tranmere 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
61%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.15 · 158 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Tranmere defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Salford City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salford City scores more
45%
level
26%
Tranmere scores more
29%

Salford City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salford City vs Tranmere

Salford City beat Tranmere 3-1 in League Two on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Peninsula Stadium in Salford.