Tranmere 3–4 Salford City: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Salford City

C. Jolley 87'

K. Dennis 36'

C. Jennings 6'

C. Hendry 85', 68', 47'

M. Smith 34'

8/19/2023

League Two · Round 4Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Tranmere36%

×Draw26%

Salford City38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.38

Tranmere

1.33

Salford City

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.09

creates per match

1.55

1.21

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Tranmere

1.09

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Tranmere

1.21

Salford City

1.58

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.12scores more

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

62%

Tranmere or Salford City

74%

Draw or Salford City

64%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

16%

Salford City wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

74%

Tranmere 2+ goals

38%

Tranmere 3+ goals

15%

Salford City 1+ goals

75%

Salford City 2+ goals

40%

Salford City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

48%

Salford City (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.09 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Salford City attack 1.55 + Tranmere defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tranmere scores more

36%

level

26%

Salford City scores more

38%

Salford City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Hendry

Salford City · F

10.0

Match Events

6'

C. Jennings↳ L. O'Connor

9'

34'

36'

46'

46'

J. Yarney← L. OConnor

47'

C. Hendry

56'

C. Jolley← S. Taylor

68'

C. Hendry↳ L. Garbutt

70'

Callum Hendry

75'

R. Watson← C. McAleny

76'

J. Hawkes← J. Leake

85'

C. Hendry↳ L. Shephard

87'

C. Jolley↳ P. Lewis

90+5'

Jordan Turnbull

90+7'

C. McLennan← C. Hendry

90+7'

A. Mariappa← L. Shephard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereSalford

Overview

40%Possession60%

13Total Shots15

4Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots15

6On Target6

2Off Target5

5Blocked4

11Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

297Total Passes442

209Accurate Passes339

70%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1