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Tranmere vs Rotherham — League One 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
CANC
14:00
Rotherham
Rotherham
4/13/2020League OneLeague One · Round 43Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tranmere33%
×Draw27%
Rotherham40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.14
Rotherham
1.29

Rotherham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 99 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.13
Rotherham
1.15

allows per match

Tranmere
1.44
Rotherham
1.15

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
60%
Tranmere or Rotherham
73%
Draw or Rotherham
67%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
13%
Rotherham wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
68%
Tranmere 2+ goals
32%
Tranmere 3+ goals
11%
Rotherham 1+ goals
72%
Rotherham 2+ goals
37%
Rotherham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
45%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.13 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Tranmere defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tranmere scores more
33%
level
27%
Rotherham scores more
40%

Rotherham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tranmere host Rotherham

April 13, 2020: Tranmere take on Rotherham in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tranmere host Rotherham at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.