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Tranmere vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
14:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
10/10/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Prenton Park
Big match
45%
Tranmere
model favours
45%27%28%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Tranmere45%
×Draw27%
Rochdale28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.35
Rochdale
1.01

Tranmere creates 34% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 56 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.33
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Tranmere
1.07
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
72%
Tranmere or Rochdale
73%
Draw or Rochdale
55%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
21%
Rochdale wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
74%
Tranmere 2+ goals
39%
Tranmere 3+ goals
15%
Rochdale 1+ goals
64%
Rochdale 2+ goals
27%
Rochdale 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
61%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tranmere scores more
45%
level
27%
Rochdale scores more
28%

Tranmere at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Rochdale
Balanced
50%Possession53%
67%Pass accuracy71%
12.1ShotsBiggest gap10.8
1.13xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereRochdale

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Tranmere
2
Draws
2
Rochdale
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
2–21–12–00–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tranmere vs Rochdale — Match Preview

Tranmere face Rochdale on October 10, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tranmere host Rochdale at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.