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Rochdale vs Tranmere — League One 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
CANC
19:45
Tranmere
Tranmere
3/17/2020League OneLeague One · Round 34Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rochdale44%
×Draw25%
Tranmere31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.56
Tranmere
1.25

Rochdale creates 25% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.33
Tranmere
0.95

allows per match

Rochdale
1.54
Tranmere
1.79

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
69%
Rochdale or Tranmere
75%
Draw or Tranmere
56%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
22%
Tranmere wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
79%
Rochdale 2+ goals
46%
Rochdale 3+ goals
21%
Tranmere 1+ goals
71%
Tranmere 2+ goals
36%
Tranmere 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
59%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Tranmere defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tranmere attack 0.95 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rochdale scores more
44%
level
25%
Tranmere scores more
31%

Rochdale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rochdale vs Tranmere — Match Preview

Rochdale face Tranmere on March 17, 2020 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rochdale host Tranmere at Crown Oil Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.