Tranmere 2–2 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

O. Banks 70'

L. Ridehalgh 65'

I. Toney 56'

M. Eisa 54'

9/17/2019

League One · Round 9Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tranmere34%

×Draw26%

Peterborough41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.45

Tranmere

1.29

Peterborough

1.45

Peterborough creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 157 away

1.13

creates per match

1.46

1.44

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Tranmere

1.13

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Tranmere

1.44

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

59%

Tranmere or Peterborough

74%

Draw or Peterborough

66%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

15%

Peterborough wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

72%

Tranmere 2+ goals

37%

Tranmere 3+ goals

14%

Peterborough 1+ goals

77%

Peterborough 2+ goals

42%

Peterborough 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

45%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.13 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Tranmere defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tranmere scores more

34%

level

26%

Peterborough scores more

41%

Peterborough at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Eisa

Peterborough · F

7.6

Match Events

54'

M. Eisa↳ J. Knight

56'

I. Toney↳ J. Ward

65'

L. Ridehalgh↳ D. Potter

70'

O. Banks

76'

S. Tasdemir← M. Maddison

81'

82'

85'

86'

90'

90+3'

C. Jennings← D. Potter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmerePeterborough

Overview

52%Possession48%

20Total Shots12

7Corners4

9Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots12

5On Target6

4Off Target4

11Blocked2

11Inside Box6

9Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

347Total Passes326

231Accurate Passes212

67%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2