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Tranmere vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
19:45
Northampton
Northampton
1/19/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 26Prenton Park
39%
Tranmere
model favours
39%27%33%

Northampton have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Tranmere39%
×Draw27%
Northampton33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.29
Northampton
1.16

Tranmere creates 11% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 88 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.33
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Tranmere
1.07
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
67%
Tranmere or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
61%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
18%
Northampton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
37%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Northampton 1+ goals
69%
Northampton 2+ goals
32%
Northampton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
54%
Northampton (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Northampton attack 1.24 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more
39%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
33%

Tranmere at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Northampton
Balanced
50%PossessionBiggest gap48%
67%Pass accuracy65%
12.2Shots11.9
1.13xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereNorthampton

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Tranmere
1
Draws
3
Northampton
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 25%
0–10–02–30–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tranmere host Northampton

January 19, 2027: Tranmere take on Northampton in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tranmere host Northampton at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.