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Tranmere vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
S. Hoskins 68' (pen)
K. Etete 52'
10/23/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Tranmere39%
×Draw27%
Northampton33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.29
Northampton
1.16

Tranmere creates 11% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 88 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.33
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Tranmere
1.07
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
67%
Tranmere or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
61%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
18%
Northampton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
37%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Northampton 1+ goals
69%
Northampton 2+ goals
32%
Northampton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
54%
Northampton (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Northampton attack 1.24 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more
39%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
33%

Tranmere at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
S. HoskinsNorthamptonNorthampton · M
8.3

Match Events

43'
Paul Lewis
52'
K. Etete↳ M. Pinnock
58'
Ali Koiki
61'
M. Duffy← K. Morris
68'
S. HoskinsPenalty
72'
Jay Spearing
72'
N. Maynard← L. Feeney
78'
R. Watson← S. Foley
86'
Sam Hoskins
88'
D. Rose← K. Etete
90+6'
D. Revan← A. Koiki

Possession

62%Tranmere

Shots

4Tranmere

Pass accuracy

52%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmereNorthampton
Overview
62%Possession38%
4Total Shots19
2Corners5
10Fouls14
Shots
4Total Shots19
0On Target6
3Off Target10
1Blocked3
1Inside Box12
3Outside Box7
Passing
62%Possession38%
435Total Passes270
285Accurate Passes161
66%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Tranmere vs Northampton

Northampton beat Tranmere 2-0 in League Two on October 23, 2021.

Goals: K. Etete (52'), S. Hoskins (68' pen).

Tranmere controlled possession (62%) and registered 4 shots to 19.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.