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Tranmere vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
2/18/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Tranmere37%
×Draw28%
Mansfield Town35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.23
Mansfield Town
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 165 home / 136 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.34
Mansfield Town
1.38

allows per match

Tranmere
1.01
Mansfield Town
1.13

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
65%
Tranmere or Mansfield Town
72%
Draw or Mansfield Town
63%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
16%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
71%
Tranmere 2+ goals
35%
Tranmere 3+ goals
13%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
70%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
33%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
51%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.01 · 165 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.34 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + Tranmere defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tranmere scores more
37%
level
28%
Mansfield Town scores more
35%

Tranmere at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Tranmere 0–2 Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town beat Tranmere 2-0 in League Two on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.