Tranmere 5–0 Grimsby: Result & Stats | League Two

Tranmere

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Grimsby

P. Lewis 86'

O. Khan 33'

J. Vaughan 29' (pen), 10'

P. Clarke 27'

11/21/2020

League Two · Round 13Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Tranmere29%

×Draw26%

Grimsby44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.42

Tranmere

1.10

Grimsby

1.42

Grimsby creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.09

creates per match

1.62

1.21

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Tranmere

1.09

Grimsby

1.62

allows per match

Tranmere

1.21

Grimsby

1.11

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.12scores more

Grimsby-0.02on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

56%

Tranmere or Grimsby

74%

Draw or Grimsby

71%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

11%

Grimsby wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

67%

Tranmere 2+ goals

30%

Tranmere 3+ goals

10%

Grimsby 1+ goals

76%

Grimsby 2+ goals

41%

Grimsby 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

40%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.09 + Grimsby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Tranmere defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tranmere scores more

29%

level

26%

Grimsby scores more

44%

Grimsby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Vaughan

Tranmere · F

8.3

Match Events

10'

J. Vaughan↳ C. MacDonald

27'

P. Clarke

29'

J. VaughanPenalty

33'

O. Khan

35'

Luke Hendrie

38'

D. Preston← G. Williams

55'

M. Green← M. Gibson

55'

E. Hewitt← T. Taylor

62'

M. Wright← D. Rose

62'

S. Scannell← O. Windsor

65'

Luke Waterfall

70'

K. Woolery← C. Taylor

71'

P. Lewis← L. Feeney

79'

Emmanuel Monthe

81'

M. Ferrier← J. Vaughan

82'

D. Lloyd← O. Khan

86'

P. Lewis↳ M. Ferrier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereGrimsby

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots9

2Corners5

13Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots9

6On Target1

2Off Target4

1Blocked4

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

441Total Passes345

334Accurate Passes237

76%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls21

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3

League Two: Tranmere 5–0 Grimsby

Tranmere beat Grimsby 5-0 in League Two on November 21, 2020.

Goals: J. Vaughan (10', 29' pen), P. Clarke (27'), O. Khan (33'), P. Lewis (86').

Tranmere controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.

Tranmere vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Tranmere 5–0 Grimsby