Grimsby 1–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Grimsby

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tranmere

3/4/2025

League Two · Round 35Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Grimsby41%

×Draw27%

Tranmere32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.17

Grimsby

1.36

Tranmere

1.17

Grimsby creates 16% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 164 away

1.23

creates per match

1.04

1.30

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Grimsby

1.23

Tranmere

1.04

allows per match

Grimsby

1.30

Tranmere

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

68%

Grimsby or Tranmere

73%

Draw or Tranmere

59%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

19%

Tranmere wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

74%

Grimsby 2+ goals

39%

Grimsby 3+ goals

16%

Tranmere 1+ goals

69%

Tranmere 2+ goals

33%

Tranmere 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

56%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 158 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.23 + Tranmere defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Grimsby defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Grimsby scores more

41%

level

27%

Tranmere scores more

32%

Grimsby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff