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Tranmere vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
15:00
Colchester
Colchester
11/21/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Prenton Park
Big match
41%
Tranmere
model favours
41%27%32%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tranmere41%
×Draw27%
Colchester32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.36
Colchester
1.17

Tranmere creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.10
Colchester
1.08

allows per match

Tranmere
1.25
Colchester
1.62

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more
Colchester+0.19scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
68%
Tranmere or Colchester
73%
Draw or Colchester
59%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
19%
Colchester wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
74%
Tranmere 2+ goals
39%
Tranmere 3+ goals
16%
Colchester 1+ goals
69%
Colchester 2+ goals
33%
Colchester 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
56%
Colchester (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.62 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Colchester defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.36

Colchester attack 1.08 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tranmere scores more
41%
level
27%
Colchester scores more
32%

Tranmere at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Colchester
Balanced
50%Possession50%
67%Pass accuracy71%
12.1Shots11.3
1.13xGBiggest gap1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereColchester

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Tranmere
3
Draws
5
Colchester
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 40%
0–11–11–30–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
Colchester
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tranmere vs Colchester — Match Preview

Tranmere face Colchester on November 21, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tranmere host Colchester at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.