Tranmere 1–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Colchester

K. Morris 7'

A. Smith 8'

4/1/2024

League Two · Round 42Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tranmere41%

×Draw27%

Colchester32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.17

Tranmere

1.36

Colchester

1.17

Tranmere creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.10

creates per match

1.08

1.25

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Tranmere

1.10

Colchester

1.08

allows per match

Tranmere

1.25

Colchester

1.62

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more

Colchester+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

68%

Tranmere or Colchester

73%

Draw or Colchester

59%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

19%

Colchester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

74%

Tranmere 2+ goals

39%

Tranmere 3+ goals

16%

Colchester 1+ goals

69%

Colchester 2+ goals

33%

Colchester 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

56%

Colchester (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.62 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Colchester defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.36

Colchester attack 1.08 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tranmere scores more

41%

level

27%

Colchester scores more

32%

Tranmere at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Turnbull

Tranmere · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

8'

35'

38'

40'

45+4'

46'

N. Chilvers← B. Ihionvien

59'

T. Dallison-Lisbon← J. Fevrier

63'

H. Saunders← L. Norris

73'

J. Hawkes← R. Apter

77'

Jay Mingi

84'

J. Akinde← C. McGeehan

85'

C. Wilkinson← T. Hopper

88'

F. Kelleher← J. Mingi

90+9'

Regan Hendry

90+7'

S. Taylor← K. Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereColchester

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots13

6Corners4

11Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots13

5On Target7

10Off Target4

2Blocked2

12Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

466Total Passes453

356Accurate Passes352

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0