Tranmere 2–1 Bradford: Result & Stats | League Two

Tranmere

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bradford

K. Morris 83'

R. Hendry 24'

A. Cook 55'

10/3/2023

League Two · Round 11Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Tranmere41%

×Draw28%

Bradford32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.11

Tranmere

1.29

Bradford

1.11

Tranmere creates 16% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 139 away

1.33

creates per match

1.15

1.07

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Tranmere

1.33

Bradford

1.15

allows per match

Tranmere

1.07

Bradford

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

68%

Tranmere or Bradford

72%

Draw or Bradford

59%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

18%

Bradford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

72%

Tranmere 2+ goals

37%

Tranmere 3+ goals

14%

Bradford 1+ goals

67%

Bradford 2+ goals

30%

Bradford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

56%

Bradford (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bradford attack 1.15 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tranmere scores more

41%

level

28%

Bradford scores more

32%

Tranmere at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Hendry

Tranmere · M

7.7

Match Events

14'

Matthew Platt

24'

R. Hendry↳ H. Saunders

30'

R. Tulloch← A. Pattison

32'

39'

49'

55'

60'

64'

76'

R. Smallwood← K. McDonald

78'

Liam Ridehalgh

82'

K. Dennis← C. Jolley

83'

K. Morris↳ C. Jennings

84'

T. Smith← R. Tulloch

85'

A. Gilliead← J. Walker

90+3'

J. Starbuck← H. Saunders

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereBradford

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots10

5Corners6

6Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots10

5On Target5

1Off Target5

3Blocked0

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

366Total Passes468

200Accurate Passes315

55%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0