Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tranmere vs Bradford — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bradford
Bradford
L. Novak 62'
12/26/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Tranmere41%
×Draw28%
Bradford32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.29
Bradford
1.11

Tranmere creates 16% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 139 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.33
Bradford
1.15

allows per match

Tranmere
1.07
Bradford
1.24

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
68%
Tranmere or Bradford
72%
Draw or Bradford
59%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
18%
Bradford wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
37%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Bradford 1+ goals
67%
Bradford 2+ goals
30%
Bradford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
56%
Bradford (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bradford attack 1.15 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tranmere scores more
41%
level
28%
Bradford scores more
32%

Tranmere at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
R. O'DonnellBradfordBradford · G
8.5

Match Events

12'
Gareth Evans
35'
Connor Wood
57'
K. Morris← D. Lloyd
57'
M. Ferrier← C. Taylor
59'
C. Cooke← G. Evans
59'
H. Pritchard← C. Donaldson
62'
L. Novak↳ L. Sutton
76'
K. Woolery← J. Young
87'
P. Lewis← C. MacDonald

Possession

63%Tranmere

Shots

12Tranmere

Pass accuracy

57%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmereBradford
Overview
63%Possession37%
12Total Shots9
8Corners8
10Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots9
5On Target3
6Off Target5
1Blocked1
8Inside Box4
4Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
479Total Passes278
376Accurate Passes161
78%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls9
0Yellow Cards2

League Two: Tranmere 0–1 Bradford

Bradford beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on December 26, 2020.

Goals: L. Novak (62').

Tranmere controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.