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Tranent Juniors vs Pollok — FA Cup 2019

Tranent Juniors
Tranent Juniors
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pollok
Pollok
9/27/2025FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundForesters Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tranent Juniors61%
×Draw21%
Pollok19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranent Juniors
2.07
Pollok
1.05

Tranent Juniors creates 97% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tranent Juniors
3.14
Pollok
1.40

allows per match

Tranent Juniors
0.71
Pollok
1.00

finishing

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par
Pollok+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranent Juniors ↓

Pollok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tranent Juniors or draw
81%
Tranent Juniors or Pollok
79%
Draw or Pollok
39%

Winning margin

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+
37%
Pollok wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals
87%
Tranent Juniors 2+ goals
61%
Tranent Juniors 3+ goals
34%
Pollok 1+ goals
65%
Pollok 2+ goals
28%
Pollok 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)
77%
Pollok (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranent Juniors at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Pollok away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranent Juniors attack 3.14 + Pollok defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.07

Pollok attack 1.40 + Tranent Juniors defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tranent Juniors scores more
61%
level
21%
Pollok scores more
19%

Tranent Juniors at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Tranent
Pollok
Robert David Horn
Manager: Robert David Horn
S. Maxwell
Manager: S. Maxwell

FA Cup: Tranent Juniors 3–0 Pollok

Tranent Juniors beat Pollok 3-0 in FA Cup on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Foresters Park in Tranent.