Tranent Juniors 4–1 Lothian Hutchison

Tranent Juniors

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lothian Hutchison

9/23/2023

FA Cup · 1st RoundForesters Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tranent Juniors69%

×Draw17%

Lothian Hutchison14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tranent JuniorsExpected goals in this matchLothian Hutchison

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.07

Tranent Juniors

2.57

Lothian Hutchison

1.07

Tranent Juniors creates 140% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

3.14

creates per match

1.44

0.71

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Tranent Juniors

3.14

Lothian Hutchison

1.44

allows per match

Tranent Juniors

0.71

Lothian Hutchison

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranent Juniors ↓

Lothian Hutchison →

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Tranent Juniors or draw

86%

Tranent Juniors or Lothian Hutchison

83%

Draw or Lothian Hutchison

31%

Winning margin

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+

47%

Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+

Team goals

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals

92%

Tranent Juniors 2+ goals

72%

Tranent Juniors 3+ goals

47%

Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals

66%

Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals

29%

Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)

83%

Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tranent Juniors at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Lothian Hutchison away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tranent Juniors attack 3.14 + Lothian Hutchison defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.57

Lothian Hutchison attack 1.44 + Tranent Juniors defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tranent Juniors scores more

69%

level

17%

Lothian Hutchison scores more

14%

Tranent Juniors at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff