Tranent Juniors 1–2 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Tranent Juniors

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Inverness CT

S. Jones 25'

C. Zimba 35'

M. Robertson 17'

12/10/2025

FA Cup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tranent Juniors60%

×Draw19%

Inverness CT21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tranent JuniorsExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.41

Tranent Juniors

2.47

Inverness CT

1.41

Tranent Juniors creates 75% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

3.14

creates per match

2.10

0.71

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Tranent Juniors

3.14

Inverness CT

2.10

allows per match

Tranent Juniors

0.71

Inverness CT

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranent Juniors ↓

Inverness CT →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Tranent Juniors or draw

79%

Tranent Juniors or Inverness CT

81%

Draw or Inverness CT

40%

Winning margin

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+

39%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

Team goals

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals

91%

Tranent Juniors 2+ goals

70%

Tranent Juniors 3+ goals

44%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

76%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

41%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)

74%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tranent Juniors at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tranent Juniors attack 3.14 + Inverness CT defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.47

Inverness CT attack 2.10 + Tranent Juniors defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tranent Juniors scores more

60%

level

19%

Inverness CT scores more

21%

Tranent Juniors at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

E. Greig← R. McIntyre

17'

M. Robertson

25'

S. Jones

35'

C. Zimba↳ C. MacLeod

59'

L. Longstaff← D. Wotherspoon

70'

J. Alonge← A. Mackinnon

70'

A. Bavidge← L. Sole

72'

P. Allan

73'

G. McGarry← H. Girdwood

73'

D. Handling← C. McKinley

73'

B. Watson← B. Miller

89'

N. Aitchison← S. Jones

Tranent

Inverness

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

16'▲E. Greig←▼R. McIntyre

73'▲G. McGarry←▼H. Girdwood

73'▲D. Handling←▼C. McKinley

73'▲B. Watson←▼B. Miller

89'▲N. Aitchison←▼S. Jones

Tranent Juniors substitutes

22Hayward5Aitchison7McGarry10Handling11Watson16Greig17Mullen20Gordon

59'▲L. Longstaff←▼D. Wotherspoon

70'▲J. Alonge←▼A. Mackinnon

70'▲A. Bavidge←▼L. Sole

Inverness CT substitutes

21Ross2Millen3MacIntyre9McKay11Longstaff22Alonge32Thompson33Kerr36Bavidge