Tranent Juniors 0–1 Forfar Athletic: Result & Stats

Tranent Juniors

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Forfar Athletic

11/25/2023

FA Cup · 3rd RoundForesters Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tranent Juniors71%

×Draw17%

Forfar Athletic12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tranent JuniorsExpected goals in this matchForfar Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.92

Tranent Juniors

2.45

Forfar Athletic

0.92

Tranent Juniors creates 166% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

3.14

creates per match

1.13

0.71

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Tranent Juniors

3.14

Forfar Athletic

1.13

allows per match

Tranent Juniors

0.71

Forfar Athletic

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranent Juniors ↓

Forfar Athletic →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Tranent Juniors or draw

88%

Tranent Juniors or Forfar Athletic

83%

Draw or Forfar Athletic

29%

Winning margin

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+

48%

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

Team goals

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals

91%

Tranent Juniors 2+ goals

70%

Tranent Juniors 3+ goals

44%

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

60%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

23%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)

85%

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tranent Juniors at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Forfar Athletic away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tranent Juniors attack 3.14 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.45

Forfar Athletic attack 1.13 + Tranent Juniors defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Tranent Juniors scores more

71%

level

17%

Forfar Athletic scores more

12%

Tranent Juniors at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff