Tranent Juniors 4–1 East Stirlingshire

Tranent Juniors

4 – 1

East Stirlingshire

12/26/2020

FA Cup · 1st RoundForesters Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tranent Juniors73%

×Draw15%

East Stirlingshire12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tranent JuniorsExpected goals in this matchEast Stirlingshire

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.97

1.16

Tranent Juniors

2.97

East Stirlingshire

1.16

Tranent Juniors creates 156% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

3.14

creates per match

1.60

0.71

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Tranent Juniors

3.14

East Stirlingshire

1.60

allows per match

Tranent Juniors

0.71

East Stirlingshire

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

East Stirlingshire+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranent Juniors ↓

East Stirlingshire →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Tranent Juniors or draw

88%

Tranent Juniors or East Stirlingshire

85%

Draw or East Stirlingshire

27%

Winning margin

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+

53%

East Stirlingshire wins by 2+

Team goals

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals

95%

Tranent Juniors 2+ goals

79%

Tranent Juniors 3+ goals

56%

East Stirlingshire 1+ goals

69%

East Stirlingshire 2+ goals

32%

East Stirlingshire 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)

86%

East Stirlingshire (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tranent Juniors at home — creates 3.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

East Stirlingshire away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tranent Juniors attack 3.14 + East Stirlingshire defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.97

East Stirlingshire attack 1.60 + Tranent Juniors defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Tranent Juniors scores more

73%

level

15%

East Stirlingshire scores more

12%

Tranent Juniors at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff