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Trakai II vs Šiauliai — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
0 – 1
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
4/17/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 5Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Trakai II29%
×Draw22%
Šiauliai49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.45
Šiauliai
1.92

Šiauliai creates 32% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 38 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.74
Šiauliai
2.18

allows per match

Trakai II
1.66
Šiauliai
1.16

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Šiauliai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
51%
Trakai II or Šiauliai
78%
Draw or Šiauliai
71%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
13%
Šiauliai wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
77%
Trakai II 2+ goals
42%
Trakai II 3+ goals
18%
Šiauliai 1+ goals
85%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
57%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
38%
Šiauliai (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Šiauliai defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.45

Šiauliai attack 2.18 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Trakai II scores more
29%
level
22%
Šiauliai scores more
49%

Šiauliai at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trakai II vs Šiauliai

Šiauliai beat Trakai II 1-0 in 1 Lyga on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.