Trakai II 3–4 Neptūną Klaipėda: Result & Stats

Trakai II

FT

3 – 4

Neptūną Klaipėda

5/15/2021

1 Lyga · Round 8Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Trakai II34%

×Draw22%

Neptūną Klaipėda44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trakai IIExpected goals in this matchNeptūną Klaipėda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.86

Trakai II

1.62

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.86

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 15% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 79 away

1.77

creates per match

2.05

1.67

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Trakai II

1.77

Neptūną Klaipėda

2.05

allows per match

Trakai II

1.67

Neptūną Klaipėda

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Neptūną Klaipėda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw

56%

Trakai II or Neptūną Klaipėda

78%

Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda

66%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+

17%

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals

80%

Trakai II 2+ goals

48%

Trakai II 3+ goals

22%

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals

84%

Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals

55%

Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)

44%

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

Neptūną Klaipėda away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.47 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.77 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.62

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 2.05 + Trakai II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Trakai II scores more

34%

level

22%

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more

44%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff