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Neptūną Klaipėda vs Trakai II — 1 Lyga 2026

Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
FT
0 – 1
Trakai II
Trakai II
9/11/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 21Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Neptūną Klaipėda50%
×Draw23%
Trakai II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.85
Trakai II
1.29

Neptūną Klaipėda creates 43% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 66 away

creates per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.93
Trakai II
1.52

allows per match

Neptūną Klaipėda
1.06
Trakai II
1.77

finishing

Neptūną Klaipėda+0.00on par
Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neptūną Klaipėda ↓

Trakai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Neptūną Klaipėda or draw
73%
Neptūną Klaipėda or Trakai II
77%
Draw or Trakai II
50%

Winning margin

Neptūną Klaipėda wins by 2+
28%
Trakai II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Neptūną Klaipėda 1+ goals
84%
Neptūną Klaipėda 2+ goals
55%
Neptūną Klaipėda 3+ goals
28%
Trakai II 1+ goals
72%
Trakai II 2+ goals
37%
Trakai II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Neptūną Klaipėda (draw refunded)
65%
Trakai II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neptūną Klaipėda at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.06 · 81 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neptūną Klaipėda attack 1.93 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.85

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Neptūną Klaipėda defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Neptūną Klaipėda scores more
50%
level
23%
Trakai II scores more
27%

Neptūną Klaipėda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Neptūną Klaipėda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Neptūną Klaipėda 0–1 Trakai II

Trakai II beat Neptūną Klaipėda 1-0 in 1 Lyga on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Klaipėdos centrinio stadiono atsarginė aikštė in Klaipėda.