Trakai II 2–1 Minija: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Trakai II

FT

2 – 1

Minija

7/30/2021

1 Lyga · Round 15Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Trakai II44%

×Draw23%

Minija33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trakai IIExpected goals in this matchMinija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.50

Trakai II

1.76

Minija

1.50

Trakai II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 102 away

1.74

creates per match

1.33

1.66

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Trakai II

1.74

Minija

1.33

allows per match

Trakai II

1.66

Minija

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par

Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Minija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw

67%

Trakai II or Minija

77%

Draw or Minija

56%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+

23%

Minija wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals

83%

Trakai II 2+ goals

52%

Trakai II 3+ goals

26%

Minija 1+ goals

78%

Minija 2+ goals

44%

Minija 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)

57%

Minija (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Minija away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Minija defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.76

Minija attack 1.33 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Trakai II scores more

44%

level

23%

Minija scores more

33%

Trakai II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff