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Trakai II vs Kupiškis — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
3 – 3
Kupiškis
Kupiškis
6/2/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 10Trakų naujasis stadionas (Trakai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Trakai II38%
×Draw21%
Kupiškis41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.87
Kupiškis
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 14 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.74
Kupiškis
2.21

allows per match

Trakai II
1.66
Kupiškis
2.00

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
Kupiškis+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Kupiškis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
59%
Trakai II or Kupiškis
79%
Draw or Kupiškis
62%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
20%
Kupiškis wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
85%
Trakai II 2+ goals
56%
Trakai II 3+ goals
29%
Kupiškis 1+ goals
86%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
58%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
48%
Kupiškis (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Kupiškis away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.87

Kupiškis attack 2.21 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Trakai II scores more
38%
level
21%
Kupiškis scores more
41%

Kupiškis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kupiškis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trakai II vs Kupiškis

Trakai II and Kupiškis drew 3-3 in 1 Lyga on June 2, 2019.

The match was played at Trakų naujasis stadionas (Trakai).