Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trakai II vs Hegelmann Litauen — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
4 – 0
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
9/12/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 23Trakų naujasis stadionas (Trakai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Trakai II37%
×Draw24%
Hegelmann Litauen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.48
Hegelmann Litauen
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 23 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.74
Hegelmann Litauen
1.43

allows per match

Trakai II
1.66
Hegelmann Litauen
1.22

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Hegelmann Litauen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
61%
Trakai II or Hegelmann Litauen
76%
Draw or Hegelmann Litauen
63%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
17%
Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
77%
Trakai II 2+ goals
43%
Trakai II 3+ goals
19%
Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals
79%
Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals
45%
Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
48%
Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Hegelmann Litauen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.43 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trakai II scores more
37%
level
24%
Hegelmann Litauen scores more
39%

Hegelmann Litauen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trakai II vs Hegelmann Litauen

Trakai II beat Hegelmann Litauen 4-0 in 1 Lyga on September 12, 2019.

The match was played at Trakų naujasis stadionas (Trakai).