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Trakai II vs FA Šiauliai II — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
4/23/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 7Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Trakai II50%
×Draw21%
FA Šiauliai II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
2.10
FA Šiauliai II
1.56

Trakai II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 67 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.77
FA Šiauliai II
1.45

allows per match

Trakai II
1.67
FA Šiauliai II
2.43

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
FA Šiauliai II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

FA Šiauliai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
71%
Trakai II or FA Šiauliai II
79%
Draw or FA Šiauliai II
50%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
29%
FA Šiauliai II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
88%
Trakai II 2+ goals
62%
Trakai II 3+ goals
35%
FA Šiauliai II 1+ goals
79%
FA Šiauliai II 2+ goals
46%
FA Šiauliai II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
63%
FA Šiauliai II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

FA Šiauliai II away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.77 + FA Šiauliai II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.10

FA Šiauliai II attack 1.45 + Trakai II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trakai II scores more
50%
level
21%
FA Šiauliai II scores more
29%

Trakai II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trakai II vs FA Šiauliai II

Trakai II and FA Šiauliai II drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.