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Trakai II vs Banga — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
0 – 1
Banga
Banga
9/18/20161 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 25Trakų naujasis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Trakai II30%
×Draw23%
Banga47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.38
Banga
1.80

Banga creates 30% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 17 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.75
Banga
1.94

allows per match

Trakai II
1.67
Banga
1.00

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Banga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
53%
Trakai II or Banga
77%
Draw or Banga
70%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
13%
Banga wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
75%
Trakai II 2+ goals
40%
Trakai II 3+ goals
16%
Banga 1+ goals
83%
Banga 2+ goals
54%
Banga 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
38%
Banga (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

Banga away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.75 + Banga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Banga attack 1.94 + Trakai II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trakai II scores more
30%
level
23%
Banga scores more
47%

Banga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trakai II vs Banga

Banga beat Trakai II 1-0 in 1 Lyga on September 18, 2016.

The match was played at Trakų naujasis stadionas in Trakai.