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Banga vs Trakai II — 1 Lyga 2026

Banga
Banga
FT
4 – 1
Trakai II
Trakai II
6/1/20181 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 10Gargždų miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Banga59%
×Draw21%
Trakai II21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banga
2.13
Trakai II
1.18

Banga creates 81% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 70 away

creates per match

Banga
2.44
Trakai II
1.47

allows per match

Banga
0.89
Trakai II
1.81

finishing

Banga+0.00on par
Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banga ↓

Trakai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Banga or draw
79%
Banga or Trakai II
79%
Draw or Trakai II
41%

Winning margin

Banga wins by 2+
36%
Trakai II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Banga 1+ goals
88%
Banga 2+ goals
63%
Banga 3+ goals
35%
Trakai II 1+ goals
69%
Trakai II 2+ goals
33%
Trakai II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Banga (draw refunded)
74%
Trakai II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banga at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.81 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banga attack 2.44 + Trakai II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.13

Trakai II attack 1.47 + Banga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Banga scores more
59%
level
21%
Trakai II scores more
21%

Banga at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Banga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Banga 4–1 Trakai II

Banga beat Trakai II 4-1 in 1 Lyga on June 1, 2018.

The match was played at Gargždų miesto stadionas in Gargždai.