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Trakai II vs Atmosfera — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
1 – 3
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
7/3/20211 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 13Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Trakai II45%
×Draw23%
Atmosfera32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.83
Atmosfera
1.52

Trakai II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 87 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.74
Atmosfera
1.38

allows per match

Trakai II
1.66
Atmosfera
1.92

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
Atmosfera+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Atmosfera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
68%
Trakai II or Atmosfera
77%
Draw or Atmosfera
55%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
24%
Atmosfera wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
84%
Trakai II 2+ goals
54%
Trakai II 3+ goals
28%
Atmosfera 1+ goals
78%
Atmosfera 2+ goals
45%
Atmosfera 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
58%
Atmosfera (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Atmosfera away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.92 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Atmosfera defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.83

Atmosfera attack 1.38 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Trakai II scores more
45%
level
23%
Atmosfera scores more
32%

Trakai II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Trakai II 1–3 Atmosfera

Atmosfera beat Trakai II 3-1 in 1 Lyga on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.